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How many clicks before a negative keyword?

Enter your conversion rate to see how many clicks without an order it takes before a search has had a fair chance, and what those clicks cost.

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22 clicks with no order

If this search really converted at 10%, 22 clicks in a row without an order would happen less than 10% of the time. Before that, a run with no orders is still easy to get by chance.

At $1.00 a click, that’s $22.00 spent before you can judge the search.

This treats every click as an independent try at the same conversion rate. Real shoppers are messier, so use it as a guide.

Use this number as the clicks threshold in the Search Term Waste Elimination template (it starts at 20 clicks, adjusted by click-through rate). It’s saved switched off, so you preview the searches it would negate before you turn it on.

To list the searches already past it, run your search term report through the negative keyword finder. Your file stays in your browser.

Already have a search with no orders?

If it really converted at 10%, 15 clicks without an order would happen 20.6% of the time.

You can be 90% sure it converts below 14.2%.

Clicks with no order before you judge a search

Each cell is the number of no-order clicks for that conversion rate and confidence level.

Conversion rate80% sure90% sure95% sure
2%80
$80.00
114
$114.00
149
$149.00
3%53
$53.00
76
$76.00
99
$99.00
4%40
$40.00
57
$57.00
74
$74.00
5%32
$32.00
45
$45.00
59
$59.00
6%27
$27.00
38
$38.00
49
$49.00
8%20
$20.00
28
$28.00
36
$36.00
10%Your numbers16
$16.00
22
$22.00
29
$29.00
12%13
$13.00
19
$19.00
24
$24.00
15%10
$10.00
15
$15.00
19
$19.00
20%8
$8.00
11
$11.00
14
$14.00
25%6
$6.00
9
$9.00
11
$11.00
30%5
$5.00
7
$7.00
9
$9.00

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Automation logic you can read, adjust and preview on your account. It's saved switched off, and runs once you turn it on.

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Search Term Waste Elimination

Adds negative keywords for search terms that keep spending without selling.

Adds negatives

How many clicks before adding a negative keyword?

  1. 1Enter the conversion rate of the product the search ran for. The calculator works out how likely a run of clicks with no order would be if the search converted as well as the product normally does.
  2. 2Pick how sure you want to be. At a 10% conversion rate, each click has a 90% chance of ending without an order, and twenty-two of those in a row happens about 9.8% of the time (0.9 to the power of 22). That’s under 10%, so after 22 clicks with no order you can be 90% sure the search converts worse than 10%.
  3. 3Wait for that many clicks before you judge the search. Before 22, a dry run is too easy to get by bad luck.
  4. 4Treat the number as a sensible minimum. The math treats every click as an independent try at the same conversion rate, and real shoppers aren’t that tidy.

FAQ

Why 20 clicks isn’t always enough

The usual rule of thumb is about 20 clicks without a sale. That works for a product converting around 10% or better. It doesn’t for a product converting at 5%: 20 clicks with no order happens about 36% of the time at 5%, so roughly one good search in three would get cut. A 5% product needs about 45 clicks to reach 90% confidence, and a 3% product about 76.

The table in the calculator shows the count for each conversion rate. Low-converting products need more patience, and their negatives cost more to get right.

Which conversion rate to use

Use the conversion rate of the product or ad group the search ran in, over the last 30 to 60 days: orders divided by clicks, from the advertised product or targeting report. Skip the account average if your products convert very differently, because a cheap accessory and a premium bundle need different thresholds.

You’re testing whether this search converts as well as the product usually does. If it’s a looser match than your main keywords, it may convert a little lower and still be worth keeping, which is one more reason not to cut it early.

Before you add the negative

A negative keyword is quick to add and easy to forget. Check these first:

  • Does the search sell somewhere else? A search with orders in another campaign or ad group may be worth keeping there, so only block it where it isn’t working.
  • Are the clicks recent? Orders can still be credited to clicks from the last few days.
  • Is it a relevant search? If someone searched for exactly what you sell and didn’t buy, look at price, listing and bid before blocking it.
  • Is it your own brand or product name? Keep those out of negatives even when one version underperforms.

A negative exact keyword blocks one search. For a word that never leads to an order across many searches, the n-gram analyzer adds up every search containing it. The search term report analyzer shows how much of your spend went to searches with no orders.

Doing this every day

Checking a report once a month means searches can run well past your threshold in between. In Merch Jar, the Search Term Waste Elimination template checks every search term each day against a clicks threshold and a spend minimum, and adds a negative exact keyword in the ad group where the search ran. The clicks threshold starts at 20 and adjusts with click-through rate; set it from the table in the calculator. It’s saved switched off. You preview the matches, and nothing is negated until you turn it on.